LorasLoras released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Donald Trump or Hillary Clinton.
LorasLoras poll results
Of those who replied, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 4 to October 5 with 500 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-4.4 points. This means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include large errors, and should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, you should consult combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields values of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton currently runs at 53.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Wisconsin. Compared to her numbers in the LorasLoras poll Clinton's poll average is 1.6 percentage points worse. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. This means that the combined PollyVote is 2.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this difference is insignificant.