On October 12, MPRC (D)MPRC (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Maine were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll results
The results show that 49.0% of interviewees indicated that they would cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 7 to October 9 among 892 likely voters. Considering the poll's error margin of +/-3.3 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they sometimes contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure yields values of 55.1% for Clinton and 44.9% for Trump. On September 17 Clinton obtained only 52.9% in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll and Trump obtained 47.1%.
Comparison to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 53.1% of the two-party vote in an average of recent polls in Maine. In comparison to her numbers in the MPRC (D)MPRC (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 2 percentage points lower. This deviation is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.8% of the two-party vote in Maine. That is, the PollyVote is 0.3 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's error margin.