Middle Tn. State Univ.Middle Tn. State Univ. released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Tennessee were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Middle Tn. State Univ.Middle Tn. State Univ. Poll results
According to the results, 40.0% of respondents indicated that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 50.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 28 to October 2 among 472 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-5.0 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they can incorporate large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 44.4% for Clinton and 55.6% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 3.3 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus within the poll's sampling error.