Magellan Strategies (R)Magellan Strategies (R) published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
In Colorado, the popular vote is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Magellan Strategies (R)Magellan Strategies (R) poll results
Of those who responded, 40.0% said that they would vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 35.0% declared that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 12 to October 13. A total of 500 likely voters responded. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the race is currently a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Hence, don't rely too much on the results of a single poll. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.3% for Clinton and 46.7% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
If we look at an average of Colorado polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 54.7%. In comparison to her numbers in the Magellan Strategies (R)Magellan Strategies (R) poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points better. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier. The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Colorado.