KOMO/Strategies 360KOMO/Strategies 360 released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
KOMO/Strategies 360KOMO/Strategies 360 poll results
Of those who replied, 50.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 33.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from September 29 to October 3 among 500 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-4.4 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, as they may contain large biases. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 60.2% for Clinton and 39.8% for Trump.
Results in comparison to other polls
Clinton is currently at 59.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Washington. Relative to her numbers in the KOMO/Strategies 360KOMO/Strategies 360 poll Clinton's poll average is 1.2 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 2.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.