Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were spread. The poll asked respondents from North Carolina for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 46.0% said that they will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 42.0% said that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 12, among a random sample of 600 likely voters. The error margin is +/-3.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be treated with caution, as they can incorporate substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, we translate them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
Looking at an average of North Carolina polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 51.8%. Relative to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 0.5 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 50.3% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.