Results of a new poll carried out by Emerson were published. The poll asked participants from Connecticut for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who replied, 48.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, whereas 40.0% revealed that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 10 to April 11, among a random sample of 1043 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.0 points, which means that the poll results for both parties' candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, research in forecasting recommends to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which incorporates different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 54.6% for Clinton and 45.5% for Trump. In the most recent Emerson poll on September 5 Clinton obtained 58.8%, while Trump obtained only 41.2%.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 58.4% of the two-party vote in Connecticut. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 3.8 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin shows that this deviation is significant.