CNN-ORC published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Ohio were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Ohio, the election outcome is often close. This is why the state is commonly considered a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CNN-ORC poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they will vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 50.0% indicated that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 10 to October 15 among 744 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.5 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both parties' candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they may incorporate large biases. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This yields figures of 48.5% for Clinton and 51.6% for Trump. On March 6 Clinton obtained 53.8% in the CNN-ORC poll and Trump obtained only 46.2%.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 48.8% of the two-party vote in Ohio. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 2.8 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's error margin reveals that this deviation is negligible.