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Issues and Leaders model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Issues and Leaders model provided an updated prediction of the election result. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.0% for Clinton, and 48.0% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.6%. This value is 1.6 percentage points higher than corresponding numbers in the Issues and Leaders index model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.9 percentage points more compared to the results of the Issues and Leaders model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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