The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 44.1%. In comparison, on October 17, Clinton was predicted to gain 56.6% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results in comparison to other index models
If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. In comparison to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.5 percentage points worse.
The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.