Issue-index model shows Clinton in the lead

The Issue-index model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 55.9% of the two-party vote share, while Trump will end up with 44.1%. In comparison, on October 17, Clinton was predicted to gain 56.6% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual index models should be treated with caution, as they often include substantial biases. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results in comparison to other index models

If we look at an average of index models, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.4%. In comparison to numbers in the Issue-index index model Clinton's index model average is 2.5 percentage points worse.

The Issue-index model compared with PollyVote's forecast

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the Issue-index model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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