Monmouth published the results of a new poll on October 12. In this poll, interviewees from Indiana were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Monmouth poll results
The results show that 41.0% of interviewees indicated that they would give their vote to former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, whereas 45.0% would vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 13 with 402 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-4.9 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, polls are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, you should not have too much faith in the results of an individual poll. Rather than relying on results from single polls, the recommended strategy consult combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that includes different methods and data.
For the following analysis, we translate Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 47.7% for Clinton and 52.3% for Trump. On August 16 Clinton received only 43.4% in the Monmouth poll and Trump received 56.6%.
Results vs. other polls
Trump currently runs at 52.7% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Indiana. This value is 0.4 percentage points higher than his respective numbers in the Monmouth poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote anticipates Trump to gain 55.5% of the two-party vote in Indiana. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.2 points above his polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error suggests that this deviation is negligible.