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Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Holbrook & DeSart model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 52.9% for Clinton, and 47.1% for Trump.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they can incorporate large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to consult combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results in comparison to other econometric models

An average of recent econometric models sees Clinton at 50.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.9 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 54.0% of the two-party vote. The results of the Holbrook & DeSart model for Clinton are thus 1.1 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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