Holbrook & DeSart model: Clinton is in the lead

The Holbrook & DeSart model released an updated forecast of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.2% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will win 46.8%. In comparison, on October 16, Clinton was predicted to gain only 52.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual econometric model. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton can currently count on 50.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3.2 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the Holbrook & DeSart model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Holbrook & DeSart model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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