Results of a new poll conducted by Gravis were published on October 12. The poll asked interviewees from Florida for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
Florida is traditionally a purple state, where the Democrats and the GOP have historically achieved similar levels of support among voters. This is why the election outcome here is considered important in determining which party will win the majority of electoral votes.
Gravis poll results
According to the results, 46.0% of participants plan to cast a ballot for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 42.0% intend to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 11 to October 13. A total of 1799 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-2.3 points, which means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be interpreted with caution, as they can contain substantial errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.3% for Clinton and 47.7% for Trump. For comparison: Only 51.1% was gained by Clinton in the Gravis poll on October 4, for Trump this number was 48.9%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Florida polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.0%. This value is 0.3 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the Gravis poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote forecast is 1.2 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this deviation is negligible.