Gravis published the results of a new poll on October 12. In this poll, participants from Colorado were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Historically, Colorado has been a battleground state, in which neither the Democrats nor the Republicans have had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Hence, predictions here are of particular value.
Gravis poll results
The results show that 44.0% of interviewees would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 39.0% are going to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 12 to October 13 with 1226 registered voters. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-2.8 percentage points, the gap in voter support is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls often include large errors, and should be treated with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 53.0% for Clinton and 47.0% for Trump. In the latest Gravis poll on October 4 Clinton received only 50.0%, while Trump received 50.0%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado has Clinton at 55.2% of the two-party vote. This value is 2.2 percentage points higher than her corresponding numbers in the Gravis poll. This margin is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 0.3 points above her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error reveals that this difference is negligible.