PPP (D) released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly viewed as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
PPP (D) poll results
According to the results, 49.0% of respondents indicated that they would give their vote to former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% intend to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 12 to October 13 among 985 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.1 points, which means that the poll results for the Democratic and the Republican candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they often incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single polls, one should look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, we translate them into two-party vote shares. This procedure results in values of 52.7% for Clinton and 47.3% for Trump. On June 5 Clinton obtained only 49.4% in the PPP (D) poll and Trump obtained 50.6%.
Results compared to other polls
Clinton currently achieves 52.0% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent polls in Florida. Compared to her numbers in the PPP (D) poll Clinton's poll average is 0.7 percentage points worse. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.