Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy published the results of a new poll. In this poll, respondents from Florida were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
In Florida, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly referred to as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy poll results
The results show that 47.0% of respondents indicated that they plan to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 44.0% plan to vote for billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 11, among a random sample of 533 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.2 percentage points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single polls, since they often contain large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the best practice scientific advice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that uses different methods and data.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 51.7% for Clinton and 48.4% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Florida sees Clinton at 52.0% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.3 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the Opinion SavvyOpinion Savvy poll. This margin is within the poll's error margin, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.1% of the two-party vote in Florida. This means that the PollyVote is 0.6 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.