Results of a new poll administered by Emerson were distributed on October 7. The poll asked participants from Washington for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Emerson poll results
Of those who responded, 44.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 38.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from September 25 to September 26, among a random sample of 700 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.6 percentage points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls should be regarded with caution, because they may contain large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in figures of 53.7% for Clinton and 46.3% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Washington polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 59.1%. Compared to her numbers in the Emerson poll Clinton's poll average is 5.4 percentage points better. This deviation is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. This means that Polly's prediction is 4.3 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus outside the poll's error margin.