The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 53.7% of the two-party vote share in Virginia, while Trump will win 46.3%.
In Virginia, the election outcome is usually close. This is the reason why the state is commonly considered a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Single models may contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.0% of the two-party vote in Virginia. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.