DeSart & Holbrook model in North Dakota: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. According to the model, Clinton will receive 39.3% of the two-party vote share in North Dakota, while Trump will win 60.8%.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 59.9% of the two-party vote in North Dakota. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 0.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Dakota.