The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was still predicted to collect 49.9% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.