DeSart & Holbrook model in North Carolina: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. The model currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 50.4% for Clinton, and 49.6% for Trump in North Carolina. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was still predicted to collect 49.9% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, as they may incorporate large errors. Instead of relying on results from single models, the evidence-based approach is to use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 50.2% of the two-party vote in North Carolina. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.2 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in North Carolina.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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