DeSart & Holbrook model in New Mexico: Clinton is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election outcome. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 56.1% for Clinton, and 43.9% for Trump in New Mexico. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was predicted to win 43.7% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Individual models may contain large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 55.6% of the two-party vote in New Mexico. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in New Mexico.