DeSart & Holbrook model in New Jersey: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 59.4% of the two-party vote share in New Jersey, while Trump will win 40.6%. In comparison, on October 14 Trump was predicted to obtain 40.5% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, as they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 57.7% of the two-party vote in New Jersey. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.7 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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