DeSart & Holbrook model in New Hampshire: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. It currently forecasts a two-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton, and 46.2% for Trump in New Hampshire. In comparison, on October 19, Clinton was predicted to gain only 53.3% of the vote.

In New Hampshire, the popular vote is usually close. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. Thus, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of an individual econometric model. Instead of trusting the results from single models, we recommend to look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 52.9% of the two-party vote in New Hampshire. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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