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DeSart & Holbrook model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 52.4% for Clinton, and 47.6% for Trump in Nevada. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was still predicted to garner 47.8% of the vote.

Nevada is traditionally a purple state, where the candidates of both major parties have historically achieved similar levels of voter support. Hence, the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 1.1 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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