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DeSart & Holbrook model in Nevada: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 52.2% for Clinton, and 47.8% for Trump in Nevada.

In Nevada, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is the reason why the state is commonly referred to as a purple state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

Individual models should be interpreted with caution, since they can incorporate large biases. At least, one should examine how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.4% of the two-party vote in Nevada. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 0.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Nevada.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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