DeSart & Holbrook model in Montana: Trump is in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will garner 42.0% of the two-party vote share in Montana, while Trump will win 58.1%.
Putting the results in context
As any other method, models are subject to bias. Therefore, as a general rule, one should not have too much confidence in the results of a single econometric model. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
The DeSart & Holbrook model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote predicts Trump to gain 56.6% of the two-party vote in Montana. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.5 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.