The DeSart & Holbrook model enters the econometric models component of the PollyVote. The model currently forecasts a major vote share of 56.5% for Clinton, and 43.5% for Trump in Michigan. In comparison, on October 14 Trump was still predicted to collect 44.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models should be interpreted with caution, as they may include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.9 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Michigan.