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DeSart & Holbrook model in Iowa: Clinton is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. It currently forecasts a major vote share of 50.5% for Clinton, and 49.5% for Trump in Iowa.

Historically, Iowa has been a battleground state, in which neither the GOP nor the Democrats have had overwhelming support to secure its electoral college votes. Hence, forecasts in this state are of particular interest.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, models are subject to bias. As a result, a good strategy is to not rely too much on the results of an individual econometric model. Rather than relying on results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on different methods and data. The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.5% of the two-party vote in Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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