DeSart & Holbrook model in Florida: Clinton is in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model is captured in the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote. It currently predicts a two-party vote share of 51.9% for Clinton, and 48.1% for Trump in Florida. In comparison, on October 13 Trump was predicted to achieve 48.0% of the vote.

In Florida, the popular vote is often decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly viewed as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

Putting the results in context

As a general rule, however, one should not have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single models, we recommend to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 50.9% of the two-party vote in Florida. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.0 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Florida.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.