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DeSart & Holbrook model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead

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The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will achieve 49.2% of the two-party vote share in Arizona, whereas Trump will end up with 50.8%. In comparison, on October 19 Trump was still predicted to collect 51.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they often contain large errors. Rather, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 52.4% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.6 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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