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DeSart & Holbrook model in Arizona: Trump is in the lead


The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election outcome. The model currently predicts a two-party vote share of 46.5% for Clinton, and 53.5% for Trump in Arizona.

Putting the results in context

Single models should be treated with caution, because they often contain substantial biases. Instead of trusting the results from single models, you should use combined models or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that draws upon forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction

The current PollyVote foresees Trump to gain 52.5% of the two-party vote in Arizona. PollyVote currently predicts Trump to gain 1.0 percentage points less compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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