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DeSart & Holbrook model: Clinton tied with Trump in Iowa


The DeSart & Holbrook model released an updated forecast of the election result. The model currently predicts a tie, with both Clinton and Trump obtaining 50% of the two-party vote. In comparison, on October 19, Clinton was predicted to achieve 50.5% of the vote.

Historically, Iowa has been a swing state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to clinch its electoral college votes. This is the reason why predictions here are of particular importance.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, because they can incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the best practice is to use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

The DeSart & Holbrook model compared with PollyVote's prediction

The most recent PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 50.3% and Trump 49.7% of the two-party vote in Iowa. Clinton has 0.4 percentage points less when the results of the econometric model are compared to the combined PollyVote forecast for Iowa.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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