The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated forecast of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will garner 52.9% of the two-party vote share in Colorado, whereas Trump will end up with 47.1%.
In Colorado, the election outcome is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a battleground state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
Putting the results in context
Individual models often contain substantial biases, and should be interpreted with caution. Rather than relying on results from single models, one should look at combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that includes forecasts from different methods, each of which includes different data.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Colorado. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 0.4 percentage points more compared to the results of the DeSart & Holbrook model.