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CNN-ORC poll in Nevada: Trump trails by a small margin


Results of a new poll administered by CNN-ORC were released. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.

In Nevada, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.

CNN-ORC poll results




The results show that 50.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.

The poll was conducted between October 10 and October 15. The sample size was 698 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.

Putting the results in context

Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.

Comparison to other polls

If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.7%. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the CNN-ORC poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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