Results of a new poll administered by CNN-ORC were released. The poll asked participants from Nevada for whom they will vote: Republican nominee Donald Trump or Democrat nominee Hillary Clinton.
In Nevada, the popular vote is usually decided by a narrow margin. This is why the state is commonly regarded as a swing state, which makes it particularly interesting from a forecasting perspective.
CNN-ORC poll results
The results show that 50.0% of respondents indicated that they would cast a ballot for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 46.0% would vote for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted between October 10 and October 15. The sample size was 698 likely voters. Taking into account the poll's sampling error of +/-3.5 percentage points, the results reflect a statistical tie.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can include substantial biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At the very least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following comparison, we translate Trump's and Clinton's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 52.1% for Clinton and 47.9% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 52.7%. This value is 0.6 percentage points higher than her respective numbers in the CNN-ORC poll. This margin is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. That is, the combined PollyVote is 0.8 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.