WPR/St. Norbert*WPR published the results of a new poll. In this poll, interviewees from Wisconsin were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WPR/St. Norbert*WPR poll results
Of those who responded, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 39.0% said that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16, among a random sample of 644 likely voters. Considering the poll's sampling error of +/-3.8 percentage points, the spread between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often include large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from benchmark methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 54.7% for Clinton and 45.4% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
Looking at an average of Wisconsin polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 53.8%. Compared to her numbers in the WPR/St. Norbert*WPR poll Clinton's poll average is 0.9 percentage points worse. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The current PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 52.7% of the two-party vote in Wisconsin. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.0 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error shows that this difference is insignificant.