Results of a new poll conducted by Emerson were published. The poll asked interviewees from Vermont for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Emerson poll results
Of those who answered the question, 47.0% said that they plan to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 26.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was carried out between September 2 and September 5. The sample size was 600 likely voters. The sampling error is +/-3.9 points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls can incorporate large errors, and should be treated with caution. Rather, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to benchmark forecasts, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. This procedure yields figures of 64.4% for Clinton and 35.6% for Trump.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 64.5% of the two-party vote in Vermont. That is, the PollyVote is 0.1 points above her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's sampling error.