Monmouth published the results of a new poll on October 3. In this poll, respondents from Nevada were asked for whom they will vote: Democrat Hillary Clinton or Republican Donald Trump.
Nevada is traditionally a swing state, where the Republican and Democratic candidates have often won similar voter support. This is the reason why the election outcome here is viewed as important in determining who will win the majority of electoral votes.
Monmouth poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 17 with 413 likely voters. The error margin is +/-4.8 percentage points. This means that the levels of voter support for the two candidates do not differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, you should not have too much faith in the results of single polls, because they may contain large errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to look at combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following analysis, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The respective figures are 54.0% for Clinton and 46.0% for Trump.
Results vs. other polls
If we look at an average of Nevada polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 52.6%. Compared to her numbers in the Monmouth poll Clinton's poll average is 1.4 percentage points lower. This difference is within the poll's sampling error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 51.3% of the two-party vote in Nevada. This means that Polly's forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.