Results of a new poll carried out by FOX 2 Detroit/MitchellFOX 2 were spread. The poll asked interviewees from Michigan for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
FOX 2 Detroit/MitchellFOX 2 poll results
Of those who replied, 47.0% said that they intend to vote for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 37.0% revealed that they would give their vote to businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 11 to October 11, among a random sample of 1429 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-2.6 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
As a general rule, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they may contain large errors. At the very least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
To make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can convert them into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 56.0% for Clinton and 44.1% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Michigan polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 57.0%. This value is 1 percentage point higher than her corresponding numbers in the FOX 2 Detroit/MitchellFOX 2 poll. This deviation is within the poll's error margin, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's forecast
The most recent PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 54.6% of the two-party vote in Michigan. That is, the PollyVote forecast is 1.4 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this deviation is insignificant.