Bloomberg published the results of a new national poll. In this poll, interviewees were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Bloomberg poll results
Of those who responded, 50.0% said that they would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 41.0% indicated that they would give their vote to real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 14 to October 17 among 1006 participants. There is a sampling error of +/-3.1 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may include substantial biases, which is why they should be treated with caution. Rather than relying on results from single polls, forecasting research recommends to use combined polls or, even better, the combined PollyVote forecast that incorporates forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The resulting figures are 55.0% for Clinton and 45.1% for Trump. In the latest Bloomberg poll on September 24 Clinton received only 50.0%, while Trump received 50.0%.
Results compared to other polls
An average of recent polls sees Clinton at 53.7% of the two-party vote. This value is 1.4 percentage points lower than corresponding numbers in the Bloomberg poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll compared with PollyVote's prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. This means that Polly's combined forecast is 1.1 points below polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's sampling error reveals that this deviation is insignificant.