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Clinton in the lead, according to most recent PollyVote forecast


Polly the parrot today predicts a national major-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.

A look at Polly's component methods

The component methods widely agree on who will be the next U.S. President: Five expect a victory for Clinton and expects that Trump will win.

Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.6% for Clinton. With a vote share of 59.2% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.

Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 15.1 percentage points.

In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 50.0% in econometric models is notably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. Back then,econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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