Polly the parrot today predicts a national major-party vote share of 53.9% for Clinton and 46.1% for Trump.
A look at Polly's component methods
The component methods widely agree on who will be the next U.S. President: Five expect a victory for Clinton and expects that Trump will win.
Coming in closest to PollyVote's prediction are combined polls with a vote share of 53.6% for Clinton. With a vote share of 59.2% the prediction markets differ the most from the PollyVote forecast.
Compared to the previous month there have been the largest changes in the prediction markets. Clinton wins 15.1 percentage points.
In comparison to historical elections, the Democrats' prediction of 50.0% in econometric models is notably low. The last time the prediction fell short of that value at that time in the campaign was the election in 2004, George W. Bush and John Kerry ran for presidency. Back then,econometric models predicted a vote share of 46.0% for the Democratic candidate John Kerry.