On October 12, KABC/SurveyUSA released the results of a new poll, in which respondents from California were asked for whom they will vote: Hillary Clinton or Donald Trump.
KABC/SurveyUSA poll results
The results show that 56.0% of interviewees would vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 30.0% plan to vote for real estate developer Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 15 among 725 likely voters. There is a sampling error of +/-3.7 percentage points. Considering this error margin, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls may incorporate large biases, which is why they should be interpreted with caution. At least, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
For the following analysis, we translate the candidates' raw poll numbers into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 65.1% for Clinton and 34.9% for Trump.
Results compared to other polls
Looking at an average of California polls, Clinton's current two-party vote share is at 62.0%. This value is 3.2 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the KABC/SurveyUSA poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
The poll in comparison with PollyVote's prediction
The current PollyVote anticipates Clinton to gain 61.7% of the two-party vote in California. Hence, Polly's prediction is 3.4 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is thus in line with the poll's sampling error.