California: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead
The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 63.5% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will win 36.5%. In comparison, on October 13 Trump was still predicted to obtain 38.1% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.7% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.