California: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Clinton in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model provided an updated prediction of the election result. According to the model, Clinton will receive 63.5% of the two-party vote share in California, whereas Trump will win 36.5%. In comparison, on October 13 Trump was still predicted to obtain 38.1% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, a good strategy is to not have too much faith in the results of single models, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should check how a model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote predicts Clinton to gain 61.7% of the two-party vote in California. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Clinton are thus 1.8 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in California.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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