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Big-issue model: Clinton is in the lead

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The Big-issue model released an updated prediction of the election result. It currently predicts a major vote share of 51.2% for Clinton, and 48.9% for Trump. In comparison, on October 17 Trump was predicted to win 48.3% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

As any other method, index models are subject to bias. In general, one should not focus too much on the results of an individual index model. At least, one should examine how a index model's results compare to benchmark forecasts.

Comparison to other index models

Clinton currently runs at 53.5% of the two-party vote according to an average of recent index models. Relative to numbers in the Big-issue index model Clinton's index model average is 2.3 percentage points higher.

The Big-issue model in comparison with PollyVote's forecast

The latest PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. PollyVote currently predicts Clinton to gain 2.7 percentage points more compared to the results of the Big-issue model.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.

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