Arkansas: DeSart & Holbrook model shows Trump in the lead

The DeSart & Holbrook model published an updated prediction of the election result. The model currently predicts a major vote share of 40.0% for Clinton, and 60.0% for Trump in Arkansas.

Putting the results in context

In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single models, since they sometimes incorporate large errors. Instead of trusting the results from single models, the recommended strategy use combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that incorporates different methods and data.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The latest PollyVote expects Trump to gain 58.5% of the two-party vote in Arkansas. The results of the DeSart & Holbrook model for Trump are thus 1.5 percentage points above the combined PollyVote in Arkansas.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

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