The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.0%. In comparison, on October 17 Trump was still predicted to obtain 47.2% of the vote.
Putting the results in context
Single models can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
Comparison to other econometric models
Clinton currently runs at 50.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.