538 (polls-plus) model shows Clinton in the lead

The 538 (polls-plus) model is part of the econometric models component of the combined PollyVote forecast. According to the model, Clinton will obtain 53.0% of the two-party vote share, whereas Trump will end up with 47.0%. In comparison, on October 17 Trump was still predicted to obtain 47.2% of the vote.

Putting the results in context

Single models can contain substantial errors, and should be interpreted with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single models, forecasting research recommends to rely on combined models or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.

Comparison to other econometric models

Clinton currently runs at 50.0% of the two-party vote in an average of recent econometric models. This value is 3 percentage points lower than respective numbers in the 538 (polls-plus) model.

Comparison to the combined PollyVote

The most recent PollyVote foresees Clinton to gain 53.9% of the two-party vote. The results of the 538 (polls-plus) model for Clinton are thus 0.9 percentage points below the combined PollyVote.

This article was automatically generated by the PollyBot, which uses algorithms developed by AX Semantics to generate text from data stored in our API. The exact dataset underlying this particular article can be found here.

Please let us know if you find any typos, missing words, or grammatical errors. Your feedback helps us to further improve the quality of the texts.