Elway published the results of a new poll. In this poll, participants from Washington were asked for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
Elway poll results
Of those who answered the question, 43.0% said that they are going to vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 24.0% indicated that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from August 9 to August 13. A total of 500 registered voters responded. The margin of error is +/-4.5 points. This means that the poll results for Trump and Clinton differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
In general, however, don't have too much faith in the results of single polls, as they sometimes incorporate large errors. At least, one should examine how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can convert them into two-party vote shares. The corresponding figures are 64.2% for Clinton and 35.8% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Washington sees Clinton at 59.1% of the two-party vote. Compared to her numbers in the Elway poll Clinton's poll average is 5.1 percentage points lower. This difference is outside the poll's sampling error, which suggests that the poll is an outlier.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The most recent PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 58.0% of the two-party vote in Washington. Hence, the combined PollyVote is 6.2 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore outside the poll's margin of error.