Results of a new poll conducted by Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt were released. The poll asked interviewees from Tennessee for whom they will vote: Democrat candidate Hillary Clinton or Republican candidate Donald Trump.
Vanderbilt UniversityVanderbilt poll results
Of those who replied, 35.0% said that they are going to vote for former First Lady Hillary Clinton, whereas 44.0% revealed that they would give their vote to billionaire Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from April 25 to May 11, among a random sample of 1001 registered voters. The sampling error is +/-4.2 points. This means that the poll results for the Republican and the Democratic candidate differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Individual polls often contain substantial errors, which is why they should be treated with caution. Instead of trusting the results from single polls, the evidence-based approach is to use combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that relies on forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
For the following comparison, we convert Clinton's and Trump's raw poll numbers into shares of the two-party vote. This procedure results in values of 44.3% for Clinton and 55.7% for Trump.
Results compared to the combined PollyVote prediction
The latest PollyVote forecasts Trump to gain 58.9% of the two-party vote in Tennessee. Hence, the PollyVote is 3.2 points above his polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore in line with the poll's margin of error.