Results of a new poll carried out by WBUR/MassINC were published. The poll asked interviewees from Massachusetts for whom they will vote: Republican Donald Trump or Democrat Hillary Clinton.
WBUR/MassINC poll results
According to the results, 57.0% of respondents would cast a ballot for former New York Senator Hillary Clinton, while 31.0% would cast a ballot for businessman Donald Trump.
The poll was conducted from October 13 to October 16. A total of 502 likely voters responded. Considering the poll's margin of error of +/-4.4 percentage points, the gap between both candidates is statistically significant.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be interpreted with caution, since they may include substantial errors. Rather, one should check how a poll's results compare to benchmark forecasts.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, you can translate them into shares of the two-party vote. The respective figures are 64.8% for Clinton and 35.2% for Trump. To compare: 65.9% was gained by Clinton in the WBUR/MassINC poll on September 10, for Trump this result was only 34.1%.
Comparison to other polls
If we look at an average of Massachusetts polls, Clinton's two-party vote share is currently at 64.2%. This value is 0.6 percentage points lower than her corresponding numbers in the WBUR/MassINC poll. This difference is within the poll's margin of error, which suggests that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The current PollyVote forecasts Clinton to gain 64.7% of the two-party vote in Massachusetts. That is, Polly's combined forecast is 0.1 points below her polling numbers. The PollyVote forecast is therefore within the poll's margin of error.