Results of a new poll carried out by QuinnipiacQuinnipiac were released. The poll asked participants from Colorado for whom they will vote: Donald·Trump or Hillary·Clinton.
Historically, Colorado has been a battleground state, in which no single party has had overwhelming support to secure that state's electoral college votes. Therefore, forecasts here are of particular importance.
QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll results
The results show that 51.0% of interviewees will vote for former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton, while 40.0% plan to vote for businessman Donald Trump.
This poll was conducted from October 10 to October 16, among a random sample of 685 likely voters. The margin of error is +/-3.7 percentage points, which means that the levels of voter support for both candidates differ significantly.
Putting the results in context
Single polls should be regarded with caution, since they often include substantial errors. Rather than trusting the results from single polls, the best practice is to rely on combined polls or, even better, a combined forecast that uses forecasts from different methods, each of which draws upon different data.
In order to make the results comparable to forecasts from other methods, one can translate them into two-party vote shares. This yields figures of 56.0% for Clinton and 44.0% for Trump.
Comparison to other polls
An average of recent polls in Colorado has Clinton at 55.1% of the two-party vote. This value is 0.9 percentage points lower than her respective numbers in the QuinnipiacQuinnipiac poll. This deviation is within the poll's margin of error, which means that the poll is not an outlier.
Comparison to the combined PollyVote
The latest PollyVote expects Clinton to gain 53.3% of the two-party vote in Colorado. Hence, the PollyVote forecast is 2.7 points below her polling numbers. Again, a look at the poll's margin of error suggests that this difference is negligible.